The Michigan Primary 2024 Election Results have been announced, and the winner is none other than Donald J. Trump. The race, which took place on February 27, 2024, saw Trump securing a significant victory in the state. In this article, we will delve into the details of the primary, explore the candidates, and analyze the results.
The Candidates and Results
The Republican Primary race in Michigan featured several candidates, but it was Donald J. Trump who emerged victorious. According to The Associated Press, Trump received 747,392 votes, accounting for 68.2% of the total votes. This landslide victory solidifies Trump’s position as a dominant force within the Republican Party.
Nikki Haley, another prominent candidate, secured 290,498 votes, making up 26.5% of the total votes. Despite putting up a strong campaign, Haley was unable to match Trump’s popularity.
The remaining votes were divided among the “Uncommitted” category, which received 32,929 votes, or 3% of the total. However, the “Uncommitted” category did not receive any delegates.
Delegate Allocation
Out of the 16 delegates up for grabs in the Michigan Republican Primary, 11 have been allocated based on the results. Trump secured 9 delegates, while Haley received 2. The remaining 5 delegates will be allocated at the party’s state convention on March 2.
Analysis of the Results
The first 85 precincts from Oakland County showed a strong night for Trump, as indicated by our reporters. After these votes came in around 8:15 p.m. ET, our estimates jumped in his favor. This early surge in support set the tone for Trump’s victory in the Michigan Primary.
Vote Distribution by County
To understand the distribution of votes across Michigan, let’s examine the leading candidates’ margins in the reported vote so far. The following table provides an overview of these margins:
| County | Trump | Haley | Uncommitted | Total Votes | Percent of Votes In | Estimated Remaining Votes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benzie | 72% | 23% | 3% | 1,906 | 60% | 1,250 |
| Calhoun | 72% | 23% | 3% | 11,216 | 73% | 4,000 |
| Berrien | 69% | 26% | 3% | 16,237 | 83% | 3,000 |
| Antrim | 69% | 26% | 3% | 3,930 | 84% | 750 |
| Genesee | 74% | 21% | 3% | 33,268 | 85% | 6,000 |
| Bay | 74% | 21% | 3% | 11,926 | 85% | 2,000 |
| Houghton | 71% | 23% | 2% | 3,600 | 85% | 650 |
| Kalamazoo | 57% | 36% | 3% | 23,958 | 86% | 4,000 |
| Monroe | 75% | 20% | 3% | 18,995 | 86% | 3,000 |
| Muskegon | 69% | 26% | 3% | 17,580 | 86% | 3,000 |
| Jackson | 72% | 23% | 3% | 17,949 | 87% | 3,000 |
| Van Buren | 68% | 27% | 3% | 8,456 | 87% | 1,200 |
| Wayne | 68% | 25% | 4% | 101,336 | 88% | 13,000 |
| Saginaw | 72% | 23% | 3% | 20,078 | 88% | 3,000 |
| Allegan | 68% | 27% | 3% | 17,073 | 88% | 2,000 |
| Grand Traverse | 63% | 32% | 3% | 13,099 | 88% | 2,000 |
| Lenawee | 73% | 22% | 3% | 11,756 | 89% | 1,000 |
| Barry | 71% | 24% | 3% | 9,351 | 89% | 1,000 |
| Dickinson | 75% | 20% | 3% | 3,746 | 90% | 400 |
| Shiawassee | 74% | 20% | 3% | 8,919 | 91% | 900 |
| Gratiot | 73% | 21% | 3% | 4,428 | 91% | 450 |
| Kent | 59% | 34% | 3% | 74,595 | 92% | 6,000 |
| Clinton | 63% | 31% | 3% | 10,836 | 92% | 1,000 |
| Cass | 74% | 20% | 3% | 6,395 | 92% | 600 |
| Eaton | 67% | 27% | 3% | 13,398 | 93% | 1,000 |
| Ingham | 59% | 35% | 3% | 20,789 | 94% | 1,000 |
| Branch | 74% | 21% | 3% | 5,488 | 94% | 300 |
| Oakland | 62% | 33% | 3% | 144,726 | >95% | <5,000 |
| Macomb | 75% | 20% | 3% | 105,926 | >95% | <5,000 |
| Ottawa | 61% | 33% | 3% | 47,131 | >95% | <2,500 |
| Livingston | 69% | 26% | 3% | 34,852 | >95% | <2,000 |
| Washtenaw | 50% | 45% | 3% | 29,175 | >95% | <1,500 |
| St. Clair | 77% | 18% | 3% | 24,127 | >95% | <1,500 |
| Lapeer | 79% | 17% | 3% | 15,322 | >95% | — |
| Midland | 63% | 31% | 3% | 11,680 | >95% | <600 |
| Montcalm | 75% | 19% | 3% | 9,065 | >95% | <500 |
| Tuscola | 78% | 17% | 3% | 8,495 | >95% | — |
| Isabella | 70% | 23% | 4% | 8,424 | >95% | <400 |
| Ionia | 71% | 24% | 3% | 7,769 | >95% | <400 |
| Newaygo | 77% | 19% | 2% | 7,648 | >95% | <400 |
| Sanilac | 78% | 18% | 3% | 6,968 | >95% | <400 |
| St. Joseph | 72% | 24% | 3% | 6,958 | >95% | <400 |
| Marquette | 66% | 29% | 3% | 6,820 | >95% | <300 |
| Hillsdale | 76% | 18% | 2% | 6,705 | >95% | <300 |
| Emmet | 64% | 30% | 4% | 5,795 | >95% | <300 |
| Mecosta | 71% | 24% | 3% | 5,676 | >95% | <300 |
| Huron | 73% | 22% | 3% | 5,073 | >95% | <300 |
| Roscommon | 76% | 19% | 3% | 5,064 | >95% | — |
| Delta | 77% | 19% | 2% | 4,647 | >95% | <100 |
| Mason | 68% | 27% | 2% | 4,638 | >95% | <100 |
| Alpena | 75% | 21% | 3% | 4,617 | >95% | — |
| Wexford | 75% | 21% | 2% | 4,596 | >95% | <100 |
| Charlevoix | 66% | 29% | 3% | 4,538 | >95% | <100 |
| Chippewa | 75% | 21% | 2% | 4,375 | >95% | <100 |
| Cheboygan | 73% | 23% | 3% | 4,342 | >95% | — |
| Clare | 79% | 17% | 2% | 4,249 | >95% | <100 |
| Leelanau | 61% | 34% | 3% | 4,240 | >95% | <100 |
| Iosco | 74% | 20% | 3% | 4,196 | >95% | <100 |
| Gladwin | 78% | 18% | 2% | 4,182 | >95% | — |
| Otsego | 74% | 21% | 2% | 4,145 | >95% | <100 |
| Oceana | 73% | 22% | 2% | 4,081 | >95% | — |
| Manistee | 72% | 23% | 3% | 3,820 | >95% | <100 |
| Ogemaw | 80% | 15% | 3% | 3,794 | >95% | <100 |
| Osceola | 77% | 19% | 2% | 3,626 | >95% | <100 |
| Kalkaska | 79% | 17% | 3% | 3,025 | >95% | <100 |
| Menominee | 76% | 20% | 2% | 3,020 | >95% | 100 |
| Missaukee | 77% | 17% | 2% | 2,512 | >95% | <100 |
| Arenac | 79% | 18% | 2% | 2,306 | >95% | <100 |
| Presque Isle | 72% | 24% | 2% | 2,266 | >95% | <100 |
| Crawford | 76% | 21% | 2% | 2,186 | >95% | <100 |
| Alcona | 79% | 18% | 1% | 2,179 | >95% | <100 |
| Montmorency | 79% | 17% | 2% | 2,009 | >95% | <100 |
| Mackinac | 72% | 23% | 3% | 1,955 | >95% | <100 |
| Iron | 79% | 17% | 3% | 1,953 | >95% | — |
| Lake | 77% | 20% | 2% | 1,736 | >95% | <100 |
| Gogebic | 75% | 21% | 2% | 1,641 | >95% | <100 |
| Oscoda | 77% | 17% | 4% | 1,625 | >95% | <100 |
| Schoolcraft | 78% | 18% | 2% | 1,235 | >95% | <100 |
| Alger | 76% | 20% | 2% | 1,231 | >95% | <100 |
| Baraga | 81% | 15% | 3% | 1,131 | >95% | <100 |
| Ontonagon | 79% | 18% | 2% | 1,100 | >95% | <100 |
| Luce | 80% | 16% | 2% | 733 | >95% | <100 |
| Keweenaw | 69% | 27% | 2% | 385 | >95% | <100 |
Live Forecast and Estimated Margin
The New York Times provides a live forecast for the Michigan primary, estimating the final outcome based on reported votes and expected remaining votes. According to their analysis, Trump is projected to win with a comfortable margin. The needle chart indicates Trump’s lead, with the estimated margin ranging from Trump +37 to Trump +49.
To further understand the estimated final vote shares for Trump and Haley, let’s examine the chart below:
This chart illustrates the range of estimates for the leading candidates’ shares of the final vote. As more votes are reported, the ranges should narrow, providing a clearer picture of the final outcome.
How the Estimates Changed Over Time
Throughout the primary, the estimated margin between Trump and the other candidates fluctuated. However, as the votes were counted and reported, the estimates eventually aligned with the reported vote shares.
The following chart demonstrates the changes in the estimated margin over time:
As shown, the New York Times’ estimate remained relatively steady, indicating a high level of confidence in their forecast. The final estimate of Trump’s margin was +44, which closely matched the reported vote share of Trump +44.
Mapping Trump vs. Haley
To visualize the share of the total vote received by Trump and Haley, let’s examine the following maps:
These maps provide a visual representation of the vote distribution for each candidate in different counties across Michigan.
Conclusion
In the Michigan Republican Primary Election for 2024, Donald J. Trump emerged as the clear winner. With a significant majority of the votes and a substantial lead over his competitors, Trump solidified his position as a dominant figure within the Republican Party. The results of this primary will undoubtedly shape the future of the party and the upcoming 2024 elections.
As the primary season progresses, it will be interesting to see how the candidates continue to perform and gather support. The Michigan Primary has set the stage for what promises to be an exciting and highly contested election year. Stay tuned for more updates on the 2024 elections.